Hello,
With diesel approaching $10/gallon (it's now over $3.00/litre ($11.36/gallon) in Scandanavia) in the US, and with Ukraine strategically disrupting Russian domestic supplies of the dino juice, eyeballs are starting to look seriously at medium and heavy category trucking with about 50% of the overall applications being servable by pure battery electrics.
Chinese companies take the lead, with about 65% market share in medium and heavy duty electric trucking. Despite their high profile and rabid fan base, Tesla only commands 1-2% of the electric truck market, while PACCAR (Kenworth, DAF, and Peterbuilt), Daimler, and Volvo each currently take a 7-11% share each.
With apologies to our worldwide readers for my US focus, here, some of the medium and heavy electric truck incentives are shown in this table:
| State |
Primary Program |
Max Class 8 Incentive |
Mechanism |
| CA |
HVIP |
Up to $150,000+ (more for port drayage) |
Point-of-Sale Voucher |
| NY |
NYTVIP |
Up to $185,000 |
Point-of-Sale Voucher |
| NJ |
NJ ZIP |
Up to $175,000 |
Point-of-Sale Voucher |
| CO |
Clean Fleet Enterprise / Tax Credit |
Up to $150,000 |
Grant / Point-of-Sale Credit |
| MA |
MOR-EV Trucks |
Up to $90,000 |
Post-purchase / Point-of-Sale Voucher |
| TX |
TERP / TxVEMP |
Covers up to 80% incremental cost |
Competitive Scrap Grant |
| MD |
MEA MHD-ZEV |
Up to $100,000+ |
Direct Fleet Grant |
Other states have electric truck programs as well:
| State |
Program Name |
Typical Funding Range / Scope |
Incentive Mechanism |
Key Requirements & Focus Areas |
| Texas |
TERP (Texas Emissions Reduction Plan) / TxVEMP |
Up to 45% – 80% of total vehicle cost (often $100,000 – $200,000+) |
Competitive scrap-and-replace grant |
Requires decommissioning/scrapping an older operational diesel truck; operations must be concentrated in designated non-attainment counties (e.g., Houston-Galveston-Brazoria, Dallas-Fort Worth). |
| Washington |
WAZIP (WA Zero-Emission Incentive Program) & Ecology Grants |
Up to $90,000 – $100,000+ per heavy truck / yard tractor |
Periodic competitive grant & voucher allocations |
Targets freight corridors, public fleets, and port drayage; infrastructure adders available ($5k–$20k/charger). Supported by the state's Climate Commitment Act and Clean Fuel Standard. |
| Maryland |
MEA MHD-ZEV Grant Program |
Covers up to 75% of incremental cost (typically $50,000 – $100,000+ per vehicle) |
Periodic competitive/first-come grant solicitation |
Open to commercial and municipal fleets registered in MD; prioritizes depot electrification, shuttle/transit applications, and regional freight corridors. |
| Oregon |
Diesel Emissions Mitigation Grants (DEQ) |
Up to 40% – 100% of incremental or total replacement cost |
Competitive grant rounds (annual solicitation cycles) |
Mandatory engine scrap/destruction requirement; heavily weighted toward operations within the Portland metro area, designated priority freight highways, and vulnerable communities. |
| Illinois |
Driving a Cleaner Illinois (IEPA / CEJA) |
Up to 50% – 75% of vehicle replacement cost |
Periodic Notice of Funding Opportunity (NOFO) grant |
Targets Class 4–8 local freight trucks and transit; awards are largely concentrated in the Chicago non-attainment area and environmental justice zones. |
| Pennsylvania |
AFIG (Alternative Fuels Incentive Grant) |
Up to $40,000 – $100,000 per Class 4–8 vehicle (capped by project/fleet totals) |
Reimbursable grant with set application windows |
Available to PA-based businesses, local governments, and non-profits; requires documentation of annual petroleum displaced and route tracking. |
So, with diesel pump prices heading up to infinity and beyond, the greed that's skimming everyone's pocket via inflation, will kick the fossil fuels industry in the teeth because the instant gratification they are basking in will backfire as the world's most brilliant marketing scheme and incentive for getting significant numbers of electric trucks on the road. Once operators realize the extremely low maintenance, downtime, and operating costs, the pure electrics truck market will snowball with momentum.
AND, the higher energy density, lower cost, batteries that are just around the corner, will convert directly to lower cost medium and heavy trucks that feature a pound for pound (kg for kg) trade for additional payload capacity within the trucking class.
The RNC Chair recently stated claimed that economic policies and energy investments require a “longer runway,” stating that voters will see pump prices drop over the next “decade or two.”
With a precipitous drop in diesel demand through conversion of the markets from diesel to electric, I submit diesel may never come back down in price.
Murray's article, below, was the motivation for this intro. Feel free to leave comments and thoughts on all this after you read his article.
enjoy,
-andyT
