On the path to the future, expect to ride a cycle of vision, innovation, disruption, and reaction. So said Krisztián Flautner, vice president of research and development at ARM, in a keynote address at the 2012 International Test Conference.
Flautner began by focusing on vision—noting that some visions come to fruition while some do not. In the latter category, he cited the 1955 prediction by vacuum-cleaner inventor Alex Lewyt: “Nuclear power vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality in 10 years.” As Flautner commented, Lewyt may have been visionary, but the nuclear vacuum cleaner’s time has yet to come.
He then cited a more accurate vision: Arthur C. Clarke’s 1945 prediction that geostationary satellites would be used for communications. That vision came to fruition when the Intelsat I launched on April 6, 1965.
Even more prescient was Mark Twain, who in 1898 published a short story titled “From the London Times of 1904.” Flautner cited this passage: “‘The improved limitless-distance’ telephone was presently introduced, and the daily doings of the globe made visible to everybody, and audibly discussable too, by witnesses separated by any number of leagues.” With this story, said Flautner, Twain described the Internet, Skype, and Chatroulette.
That brings up the technologist’s role in the vision portion of the cycle Flautner described. Clarke had served in the Royal Air Force as a radar instructor and technician—experience that might have given him the technical background to assess the practicality of geostationary satellites. But he was certainly most accomplished as a science fiction writer. It seems it’s the story tellers—not the engineers—who excel at vision.
That leaves the innovation to engineers, who sweat the details. Flautner noted that visionaries might expect their visions to come true soon—but reality can seem to take forever as engineers engage in the painstaking work of design, validation, and test. He cited verification as a potential stumbling block on the way to the future. There is a theory that “…you can never be too verified,” he said—it’s better to have simulation cycles early rather than silicon cycles later. But the process involves turning parking lots into very expensive compute clusters.
The journey toward the future is not without disruption and reaction. Flautner noted that the move to AC power distribution threatened to disrupt Edison’s DC power business. Prompted by his own commercial interests, Edison engaged in a feud with Westinghouse. In addition, Flautner cited the resistance to the telephone of Sir William Preece, chief engineer of the British Post Office who in 1876 said, “The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.”
As for reaction, Flautner cited another writer—George Orwell—and the all-seeing Big Brother of 1984. This dystopian vision may not have come true by 1984, but by 2009, the British government was fielding one or more CCTV cameras for every 15 citizens. In reaction, some citizens have turned to CV Dazzle computer-vision-camouflage makeup. In a reaction of their own, Flautner suggested, CCTV systems may have to develop a fashion sense.
As for his own predictions about the future, Flautner said that the current emphasis on phones will give way to computerized fashion accessories like watches, necklaces, and rings. “I would like to see the next computer revolution be something that looks good,” he said.
If Flautner’s prediction comes true, it might demonstrate that he has a future as a short-story writer.
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