Of the 3.362 GW of power-generating capacity added in the first quarter of 2018 in the United States, 94.9% came from renewable sources, according to data from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Office of Energy Projects. Wind accounted for 53.3%, while solar accounted for 40.3%. The renewable figure is up from 48.8% for the same period last year.
Of the capacity added January through March of this year, natural gas, oil, and coal accounted for 2.35%, 0.3%, and 0%, respectively, despite the Trump administration’s pro-fossil-fuel agenda, as Emily Atkin at The New Republic points out. She cautions, however, that three months of data isn’t sufficient to determine long-term investment trends. She further reports that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted on Monday that the rest of 2018 will likely see huge increases in natural-gas capacity. The EIA forecasts that for utility-scale capacity additions for the entire year, renewables will likely account for only 36% of the total, falling to less than half for the first time since 2013.
There may still be hope for added capacity from coal. Miranda Green at The Hill reported yesterday that the Department of Energy is seeking comment on a 50- to 350-MW modular coal-based pilot plant that would be economical for both international and domestic power generation. She reports that the administration’s proposed fiscal 2019 budget included $195 million for the development efficient coal generators. And Amy Harder at Axios has quoted Steve Winberg, assistant Energy secretary for fossil energy, as saying, “If we’re successful with these small modular coal plants … that could be a paradigm shift.”
Nevertheless, Atkin at The New Republic quotes Pavel Molchanov, an energy market analyst at the financial firm Raymond James, as saying, “The simple reality is that there are only three large-scale options: natural gas, wind, and solar. It would be ludicrous for anyone to invest in [new coal plants] given how dreadful the economics are.” She also quotes John Rogers, a senior energy analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists, as saying, “President Trump can put his thumb on the scales for coal all he wants, the market’s still not going to say yes to coal.”
Coal now accounts for 23% of a total 1,184 GW of total available installed generating capacity, according to FERC, which expects a net 14.1 GW of coal-fired generating capacity to be retired by April 2012.
