Dennis Kimetto was the first marathoner to break the 2:03 mark (in Berlin in 2014). The goal now is to break the two-hour mark.
FiveThirtyEight has assembled a team of “running science geeks” to discuss this goal. Christie Aschwanden, lead science writer at FiveThirtyEight, poses the questions, “Is breaking two hours a gargantuan feat? Or is this a technicality that will happen soon regardless?”
Alex Hutchinson, who covers the science of endurance sport for Runner’s World and other publications, replies, “Under ‘normal’ circumstances, it’s very big. A few years ago, I predicted it would happen in 2075, which gives a sense of where my thinking was at that point.”
Wouter Hoogkamer, who studies the biomechanics, energetics, and neurophysiology of running and other sports at the University of Colorado, adds, “Without targeting some external factors to make it easier, it will be a long time before it happens.”
Steve Magness, coach to professional and collegiate runners and co-author of the book Peak Performance agrees: “It’s a huge task. We’re looking at a several-decades jump in performance, at the minimum.”
Nevertheless, reports FiveThirtyEight, “…three teams—one sponsored by Adidas, another backed by Nike, and one called SUB2 that’s being led by a team of academic researchers”—are aiming to break the two-hour mark.
Interestingly, the participants in the discussion don’t see a huge role for science in improving running speed. Notes Magness, “As a coach and exercise scientist, I’d say the advancements due to science are minimal, at best. That seems like sacrilege, but if we look at the drops in time, they aren’t athletes training utilizing scientific gadgets.” Hoogkamer adds that science has played a bigger role in other sports, including pole vaulting and speed skating.
The discussion touches on many aspects, including the ideal marathon course, drafting (an effective record-breaking strategy would require four sub-2:03 runners in the race), and the “pharmaceutical” approach to records.
Aschwanden concludes by noting that Hoogkamer plans to run in Boston on Monday, and she asks what his time goal is. He says he is aiming for sub-2:40. She wishes him good luck and notes he has only 40 minutes to shave off.
Read the complete discussion here.
