Wanted: four-engine aircraft for delivery in 2021

If you are thinking of running for President in 2020—or at least joining the presidential entourage—you may want to give some thought to your mode of travel. The current Presidential fleet of 747-200 aircraft will reach its 30-year planned service life in 2017, and the Air Force is facing mounting maintenance costs and parts obsolescence problems.

Consequently, under the Presidential Aircraft Recapitalization program, the Air Force wishes to replace the existing fleet and take delivery on the new aircraft not earlier than 2021.

According to the PAR solicitation, “The Government is interested in a four-engine wide-body commercial aircraft platform to meet the PAR electrical power, passenger load, and safety/range requirements.”

The problem is that no U.S. manufacturer may be offering four-engine wide-body aircraft by 2021, as more efficient twin jets dominate the market. As Steve Wilhelm pointed out in the Puget Sound Business Journal, Boeing has a backlog of only 53 747-8 aircraft—enough to keep its Everett production facility going until 2016. Boeing hopes to gain more orders for dedicated cargo versions, but Wilhelm noted that an expanding passenger fleet has room left over to haul cargo that used to fly on dedicated cargo planes. Also, shippers are looking to ocean vessels to save cost.

Wilhelm pointed out, “Even with Airbus’ expanded presence in the United States with its Mobile, AL, plant, it's hard to imagine that a future Air Force One could be a four-engine Airbus A380 built by a European company. Not to mention that the mammoth double-decker A380 might be considered overkill, even for the needs of a U.S. president and his or her entourage.”