A few weeks ago, Frost & Sullivan hosted a virtual panel on 5G, featuring speakers from Alcatel-Lucent, NYU Wireless, and National Instruments. Here are a few takeaways from the discussion that may surprise you.
- One size does not fit all
5G spans several dimensions including speed, capacity, and number of devices. However, not all the requirements have to be met at the same time for all devices and at all locations. The key to 5G is to enable new services and improve user experience. As such, it should be able to deal with new scenarios including massive machine communication, meet user expectations in crowded scenarios, extend the battery life of devices, and support mission-critical and low-latency services.
While approximately 6 billion devices are currently connected to the wireless cellular infrastructure, the number is expected to increase to 50 billion to 85 billion by 2020. The network will likely have users that are low bandwidth and others that are high bandwidth. With 5G technologies not mutually exclusive, there is a huge opportunity for optimization.
- Technology is not the barrier
Key 5G technologies include massive multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO), millimeter wave (mmwave), and new waveforms, which present significant challenges from a technical standpoint. In a 100-antenna MIMO system, for example, acquiring, aggregating, and processing all of the channels is challenging. In addition, synchronization and other aspects such as pilot pollution and calibration are important issues.
While the technical complexity of 5G technologies can be daunting, technology is not the limiting factor when it comes to the 5G targets. Despite the significant challenge posed by synchronization, there have been demonstrations of massive MIMO. 5G prototypes being built today are also achieving 5 Gb/s or more, auguring well for the industry’s ability to improve data rates by 10x or more by 2020. Prototypes for candidate waveforms have also been built and run in real-time with both filter bank multicarrier (FBMC) and generalized frequency division multiplexing (GFDM) out-of-band rejection and sub-carrier filtering enabling cognitive radio.
The true limitation for 5G is its cost. Dealing with synchronization in massive MIMO, for instance, increases costs. Low latency is also expensive, preventing it from being provided for all applications and all devices. Cost becomes a significant issue in the absence of a clear business case.
- 60 GHz is not the most adequate band
Almost all of cellular communication is constrained to a narrow spectrum of below 3 GHz, which is driving the industry to move the cellular standards to higher frequency bands. While unlicensed, 60 GHz is intended for short-range links. Its high absorption of radio waves makes it ideal for local area networks but unsuitable for long-range links. Other frequencies, including 15 GHz, 24 GHz, 38 GHz, and 71 to 76 GHz, are better suited for long-range links and, therefore, 5G. While all of these bands are viable, at least for small cell deployments, the use for backhaul in the 10- to 24-GHz range may have an impact on regulators’ decision on a suitable band for 5G. There are also other spectral opportunities below 6 GHz, as it is not exhausted. The inroads made by 802.11ad and the availability of components may have raised awareness about 60 GHz, but this band is not adequate for 5G.
- 2020 for first deployments is a realistic objective
Considering the timeline of previous generations of cellular technology, the 2020 objective for the first 5G deployments is realistic. Talks about long-term evolution (LTE) started in 2005, and the specification emerged in 2008. The first step for 5G is likely to be a study item in the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) starting in 2016. Various industry forums have already started to consolidate the requirements from operators. Once the requirements have been gathered, standardization would begin—most probably in the second half of 2016. If 5G reaches this milestone, deployments around 2020 are optimistic but possible. A few sporting events, such as the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia, the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea, and the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo, will likely showcase partial implementations of 5G technologies.
- Absence of competing standard, concrete business case, and regulatory issues may affect the move to 5G
To access the recording of the entire session, click here.
Jessy Cavazos is Industry Director, Test & Measurement, Measurement & Instrumentation, at Frost & Sullivan.
