In fact, LED lumen depreciation quite often doesn't determine the lifetime of a well-made luminaire. The report further says many manufacturers estimate luminaire lifetime using LED lumen maintenance figures, which can give misleading results.
This practice can be particularly bad for fixture manufacturers because it impacts whether or not the fixture will last as long as the manufacturer's warranty. "The statement '100,000 hours of LED luminaire lifetime' is gradually giving way to the realization that there is little consistency, very little published data, and few hard facts around so-called luminaire lifetime numbers," says the report. But the situation is better at the LED package level, it says, where reputable manufacturers have thousands of hours of data under varying conditions.
All in all, there is still no accepted protocol for measuring and characterizing LED fixture lifetime. One reason is that it can be costly to make such measurements due to the large number of product samples such tests require. "But as we learn more about the behavior of these LED 'systems,' it becomes evident that the life of a fixture may be considerably shorter than what is indicated by nominal light depreciation, albeit still generally longer than many incumbent lighting solutions," the report says.
The full text of the report is free and available here:
http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/publications/pdfs/ssl/led_luminaire-lifetime-guide_june2011.pdf