Nations must drastically improve cybersecurity protection to guard against thefts of nuclear materials or acts of nuclear sabotage, according to an exhaustive global analysis released 5 September by the nonprofit Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). One-third of the 44 countries and Taiwan that possess weapons-usable nuclear materials or have reactors, reprocessing plants, and other nuclear facilities lack even the most basic cyberprotections, the NTI reports in its Nuclear Security Index. And although the US received a high grade for its cyberdefenses, it still needs to improve its overall level of protection.
The pace of cyberattacks on nuclear facilities has accelerated in recent years, according to the report. The authors cite multiple incidents that were publicly reported in 2016, including viruses discovered in computer systems at the Gundremmingen Nuclear Power Plant in Germany and the theft of tritium research from the University of Toyama’s Hydrogen Isotope Research Center in Japan. In addition, a former US Department of Energy and Nuclear Regulatory Commission employee pleaded guilty to charges stemming from an attempt via spear-phishing emails to fraudulently gain confidential information from dozens of DOE employee accounts.
Taiwan and 12 countries, including the US, received the highest grade from the NTI for their defenses against cyberthreats. But many other countries have not upgraded their cyberdefenses since 2016, the last time the NTI conducted its review. The report notes that nations with the largest number of sites are more likely to have cyber-nuclear regulations in place. The NTI recommends that those nations share their expertise and information on threats and vulnerabilities with less advanced countries. It also calls for countries to impose cybersecurity requirements at their nuclear facilities and to increase the number and quality of cyber-nuclear experts at sites.
Among the 22 nations that possess at least 1 kilogram of separated plutonium or highly enriched uranium, the US and Russia came in 12th and 17th, respectively, for their overall level of protections from thefts. The two nations hold the vast majority of weapons-usable materials. Factors considered in the report card besides cyberdefenses include quantities of materials and the number of sites where they are located, security and control measures, and adherence to international norms and agreements.
The US is down one place on the list from 2016 due to “heightened social unrest, resignations and vacancies from key government departments, and the increasingly deep polarization of political party politics.” Changes in regulatory policies require effective governance and bipartisan support, explains Hilary Steiner, a report coauthor from the consulting firm Economist Intelligence Unit. She cites large-scale demonstrations over the past two years, including the violent 2017 rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, as examples of social unrest that could adversely affect US nuclear regulatory policy.
Still, the US remains far more stable than some of the other states possessing nuclear weapons materials. “Things might have gone in the wrong direction [in the US], but they’re still in the positive category,” says Page Stoutland, NTI vice president for scientific and technical affairs.
Since 2016, increased political instability, ineffective governance, pervasive corruption, and the presence of terrorist groups have elevated threats in almost the same number of countries as those that have lowered their risks, the report says. “We are racing the clock to prevent an attack with catastrophic consequences,” NTI CEO Ernest Moniz says in the foreword of the report. He brings up the aftermath of the 2016 suicide bombings of the Brussels airport and subway, when authorities uncovered evidence of a well-organized effort by terrorist groups to obtain nuclear and radiological materials.
Nonetheless, important security gains have been made. Ten of the 32 countries that possessed weapons-usable materials in 2012 have since disposed of them. Poland and Argentina were the latest to eliminate their highly enriched uranium, joining Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Mexico, Sweden, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam. In the early 1990s, more than 50 nations possessed such materials.
Australia tied with Switzerland for first place in overall protections against nuclear theft. Both nations are believed to possess just 1–3 kilograms of fissile material, quantities that are insufficient to fashion a nuclear device, says Frank von Hippel, former cochair of the International Panel on Fissile Materials.
Besides the US and Russia, the declared nuclear weapons states ranked 11th (France), 12th (the UK, tied with the US), and 14th (China). Undeclared weapons states Israel, India, and Pakistan were near the bottom of the list, at 18th, 19th, and 20th, respectively. The states judged to be most vulnerable to nuclear theft were Iran and North Korea.
Of the 44 nations and Taiwan with nuclear facilities, Finland topped the rankings in protections from sabotage, followed by Australia, Canada, Japan, and the UK. The US tied for 11th place.
