Mesa, AZ. The Internet of Things was a focus of the BiTS opening technical session yesterday. Following the opening keynote address and preceding three technical papers on IoT test, general chair Ira Feldman kicked off the session with a marketplace report, in which he emphasized, “The future is close.”
Before providing an overview of the socket and contactor market along with general market trends, he set the stage for what’s now and next in test by citing the prototype BMW i8 Spyder concept car. It made its first appearance this year not at an auto show but rather at the Consumer Electronics Show, illustrating the convergence that is occurring because of the proliferation of smart objects.
The car is roofless and doorless and can operate completely autonomously—a mode in which the steering wheel contracts into the dashboard and the vehicle’s 360° panoramic display can be devoted to entertainment. (The car also has a “pure” mode in which the driver can be in control and yet another, the “assist” mode, in which it can help a driver avoid accidents.)
The i8 indicates that the necessary foundational technologies are all in place—but not necessarily the legislative ones. Feldman pointed out that the vehicle has no rear-view mirrors, which California law requires. Nevertheless, Feldman said, “I think the future is quite close as enabled by the technology we work on every day.”
Feldman then offered an overview of technology markets, noting, for example, that U.S. handset replacement cycles have lengthened in the last few years—reaching 30 months (estimated) for 2016. Still, replacement cycles are much shorter than they have been traditionally for appliances, for example.
He added that the rate of cellphone unit-volume growth may be slowing, but the number of units shipping each year is so large that even smaller percentages represent a lot of phones, and a lot of chips.
One variable is where those chips will be made as China tries to close the gap between the number of chips it consumes and the number of chips it produces. Feldman cited a pwc report on the topic.
Wherever the chips are produced, the ASPs are coming down, putting pressure on suppliers of consumables to the industry. Feldman cited as an example the chips in your credit cards, which probably cost less than the postage needed to mail the cards to you.
He then turned his attention to the burn-in and test socket market, citing figures from John West at VLSIresearch, forecasting a 3.8% CAGR through 2020 (2.6% for burn-in sockets and 4.4% for test sockets).
The top five manufacturers, who account for roughly half of the market, include Yamaichi Electronics, Enplas Tech Solutions, Sensata Technologies, ISC, and Leeno Industrial, all of whom are exhibiting at BiTS this week.
